[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W
2N30W 1.5N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR THE CITY OF MACAPA AT
EQ51. ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 2N
TO 4N BETWEEN 24 AND 27W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ FROM BETWEEN 38W
AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS
TO THE WHOLE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW ANTI-CYCLONIC AIR
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 KT. WEATHER
MODELS INDICATE THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE DIGS DOWN TO SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A SECOND ROUND OF
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS TO THE REGION. AS THIS COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE WESTERN REGION OF THE GULF...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL BASIN
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...DRY
AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION FROM
HAPPENING IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS
THE NORTH CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W
CONTINUING THROUGH WESTERN JAMAICA TO NEAR 15N80W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. FURTHERMORE...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHEAST
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N69W CONTINUING SW ALONG 16N73W 15N78W
12N80W TO 10N83W. CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THE SHEAR LINE ARE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OF THIS FEATURE. A
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BASIN ALONG THE 70W
LINE FROM 10N TO 16N. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF WEAK TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IMPACTING THE
WESTERN ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WEST OF A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ALONG 27N60W 22N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED 120 NM AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...ALONG 25N58W 23N61W...TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
20N67W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...A SURFACE
HIGH MEASURING 1023 MB IS BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO
THIS REGION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


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