[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W THEN TO THE EQUATOR
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. MOSTLY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. W OF 90W...E TO SE
WINDS AND THE BEGINNINGS OF WEAK SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FAR
NW GULF ARE OBSERVED FROM BUOYS AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS
ACROSS THE NW GULF. AS THIS SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
LATE THURSDAY THAT WILL PROVIDE THE GULF BASIN WITH A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN POLAR AIR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION SW OF PANAMA NEAR 7N84W. E PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
NEAR 20N73W AND CONTINUES ALONG 19N80W TO 16N84W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND PRIMARILY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FARTHER TO THE SE...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W ALONG 16N75W 13N80W TO 10N82W.
CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THE SHEAR LINE ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THIS FEATURE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES NOTED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A PATCH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AN AXIS OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 67W-72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W CONTINUING SW TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR
27N61W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
AROUND 06/1330 DEPICTED SW WINDS TO 20 KT E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 30N25W. FARTHER E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY
A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N34W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER S OF 30N E OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN





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