[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N21W 3N41W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR WEST OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120
NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 8W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
THAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE E US TO OVER THE NE GULF INTO THE W ATLC PRODUCING A
STRONG JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90
TO 170 KT WITH THE STRONGEST JET STREAK BETWEEN 25N-30N W OF 88W
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SRN
GULF MAINLY S OF 26N WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING
THE N GULF EXCEPT OF WITHIN 30/60 NM OF THE N GULF COAST FROM
CEDAR KEY FLORIDA CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF COOL
TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT...
REMAINS ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENTERING THE AREA FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W W OVER E TIP OF JAMAICA
BEFORE TURNING S TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 90 TO 110 KT. STRONG NE
SURFACE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
AREA S OF 20N W OF 81W AND WITHIN 200 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GIVING
THE S CARIBBEAN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR MAINLY S OF
18N. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W
CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N57W TO OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 19N71W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM BERMUDA TO JUST E OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N76W.
DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS
ALSO PRODUCING A STRONG JET N OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W TO BEYOND 32N53W WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 90
AND 170 KT WITH THE STRONGEST JET STREAK FROM 25N-30N FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVER FLORIDA TO 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N34W
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE




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