[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N26W 2N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
E US TO OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N PRODUCING A STRONG JET ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 TO 160 KT WITH THE
STRONGEST JET STREAK BETWEEN 25N-29N W OF 90W ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SRN GULF MAINLY S OF 25N WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE N GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS COAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. THIS
SCENARIO IS GIVING THE GULF AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW POINTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FROM 20N70W W OVER E JAMAICA BEFORE TURNING S TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET THAT COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 90
TO 115 KT. STRONG NE SURFACE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT WITH
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION GIVING THE S CARIBBEAN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR MAINLY S OF 16N. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN E
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
AND SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N57W TO OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N67W TO OVER THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 24N78W. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS ALSO PRODUCING A STRONG JET N OF A LINE
FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N53W WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 90 AND 160 KT WITH THE STRONGEST JET
STREAK FROM 25N-29N FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER FLORIDA TO 73W.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 27N31W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE



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