[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM WESTERN AFRICA OFF THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE ALONG 7N20W 5N30W 4N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR
AMAPA AT 2N50W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS 60 NM NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FOUND WITHIN 80 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...LEAVING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTHERLY
WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS. NOW...THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N80W 21N84W
20N86W CONTINUING ON A SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY INTO THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. SUBSIDENCE OF AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS TAKEN
OVER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. THUS...NO ACTIVITY IS
DETECTED ON RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT
ALOFT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA...FROM WESTERN CUBA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES AND EXTENDS NORTH WEST TO SOUTH HAITI ALONG 14N61W
15N67W 18N73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. EAST WINDS 10
TO 15 KT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST
CORNER BASIN WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE OF
AIR ALOFT...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. LOOK
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM EAST CUBA TO BELIZE WITH RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 36N67W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CONTINUING THROUGH
WESTERN CUBA. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT BRINGING ALONG
A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 71W. FURTHER EAST...A 1020 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N53W MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N22W. A LONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM
THE LOW CENTER...ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N30W
20N40W...STARTING TO DISSIPATE AT 14N50W TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 22N. LESS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOR THE WEST ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BRINGING CONVECTION TO THIS REGION. ALSO LOOK
FOR THE EAST ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE FURTHER EAST REACHING
THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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