[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N30W 4N45W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 7W-10W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 14W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N80W 21N90W 18N93W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-83W MOVING SE. 20-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED 15 DEGREES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N98W. THIS HIGH HAS TIGHTENED THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND A GALE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 95W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF AND 90-110 KT 25O
MB WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N.
EXPECT IN 12 HOURS...FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE OF THE GULF.
25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH A LOT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ALONG 14N60W
17N70W 17N73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 15-20 KT NE WINDS ARE
NORTH OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM 8N-22N W OF 82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
17N W OF 80W WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. THE SUBSIDENCE
IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO
BELIZE WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS S OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N73W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W MOVING SE. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT BRINGING ALONG A
LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N E OF
THE FRONT TO 58W. FURTHER E...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N56W MOVING E. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W TO E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 24N34W 16N50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN
30W-50W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE W ATLANTIC
FRONT TO MOVE SE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 58W WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND
REACH THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net