[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ALONG
2N20W 1N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 7W-11W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 20W-27W...AND BETWEEN 30W-32W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM A
1007 MB LOW OVER N CENTRAL LOUISIANA ENTERING THE GULF WATERS
NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS CONTINUING SSW TO NEAR 23N96W. SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE E ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN KENTUCKY ACROSS
TENNESSEE...ALABAMA...AND ERN LOUISIANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXTEND OVER THE GULF N
OF 28N BETWEEN 87W-92W. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR SOME OF THE STORM CELLS IN THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM
22N-25N BETWEEN 82W-89W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING E
ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF 27N. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS IN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 26N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTEND INTO THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WRN CUBA. A DYING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE NE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N TO 73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS. ALOFT...ZONAL WLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED
WITH MODERATE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS S FLORIDA EXTEND INTO THE SW N ATLC
REACHING TO THE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING DOWN THE U.S. ERN SEABOARD. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE AND CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA OVER AFRICA NEAR 32N1W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR
23N31W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
20N49W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
42W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE.
ALOFT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS PROVIDING MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR EQ24W IS
SUPPORTING THE ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CONVECTION
ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON



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