[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N25W 4N40W 3N51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
27W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR
32N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W PRODUCING A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT
AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE GULF AS NOTED ON RADAR
IMAGERY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
A WARM AIRMASS WITH SE SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE GULF WITH
POSSIBLE DENSE SEA FOG ALONG THE TEXAS COAST E OF THE COLD
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG 130-150 KT JETSTREAM IS
OVER THE N GULF WITH ZONAL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 27N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE
GULF S OF 24N AND E OF 90W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N60W
17N73W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. RADAR
IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS HEAVIEST RAIN IS JUST S OF THE
ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SIMILAR LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N
OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
NEAR 32N75W PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLANTIC TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N10W 21N40W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1016 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N32W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N22W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC FRONTS TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS DUE THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA



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