[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 2N20W
2N30W 3N40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 27W-36W...AND FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR CORPUS CRISTI TEXAS
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. THIS AIR MASS IS
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN GULF.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE.
ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN ALONG WITH
MODERATE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...A STRONG JETSTREAM IS
DRAWING A SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS
THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 92W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT REACHING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE NRN TIP OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N88W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM BEHIND
THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM E
CUBA NEAR 21N75W ALONG 18N80W 13N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND...AND 90 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 16N.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD TO THE SRN TIP OF FLORIDA
TO NRN HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN
VENEZUELA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE W ATLC
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W AND INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF
THE FRONT ALONG 31N66W 26N69W TO TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N74W. A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 350 NM E OF THE FRONT
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N INDICATED BY RECENT
LIGHTNING DATA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN
U.S. SEABOARD CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK SUPPORTS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ERN VENEZUELA INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 57W IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE LARGE AREA OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS E OF THE FRONT AS
IT PUSHES ACROSS THE ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
29N52W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E VENEZUELA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE TAIL
END OF A DYING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS NW AFRICA TO S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 25N22W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON





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