[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N09W 2N30W 1N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 16/1500 UTC...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING NORTHERLY WINDS
UP TO 20 KT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY. ALOFT...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATELY DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ALONG THE WESTERN GULF...AS A STRONG JETSTREAM STRETCHES UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF
ALONG 25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA
STRAITS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN INLAND
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 19N89W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 23N83W TO 16N83W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE E OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY N
OF 15N W OF 76W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 32N76W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
26N81W TO THE TIP OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EASTERLY
TRADES CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS LOCATED OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 62W PROVIDING FOR CONTINUED STABILITY
AND FAIR WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N73W AND EXTENDS SSW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N72W
TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY E
OF THE COLD FRONT AND COVER THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 21N W OF 63W.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS ORIENTED ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC STRETCHING FROM A 1020
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N58W TO THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR DAKAR
SENEGAL. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE
NE ATLC FROM MOROCCO NEAR 27N13W TO 26N34W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN




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