[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N2W 4N10W 5N22W 2N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER THE GHANA WEST AFRICA E OF 3W
TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AREA ACROSS THE E GULF S OF 28N E OF 87W
AND THE FAR W GULF S OF 26N W OF 94W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO SUPPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS GREATER THAN 90 KT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH WINDS OF 120-135 KT N
OF 26N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF THIS
EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 19N76W ACROSS JAMAICA TO 16N80W THEN
DISSIPATING TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL COSTA RICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS N OF 30N. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING INFLUENCED BY
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BEGIN DISSIPATING LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE E GULF EXTENDING INTO THE N AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N52W FROM A LARGE 971 MB OCCLUDED
LOW WELL N OF THE REGION CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N64W JUST E OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GALE
FORCE WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE
ENTIRE FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR
32N17W EXTENDING SW TO 25N25W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 17N43W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF NW AFRICA. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FRONT ALSO BISECTS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 21N48W AND A 1015 MB HIGH SE
OF THE FRONT NEAR 15N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE







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