[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N27W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
43W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 15W-26W AND S OF 1N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A COOL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
29N92W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE E GULF WITH
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF DRAWING
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO SUPPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 100 KT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH
WINDS OF 120-140 KT N OF 28N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US. EXPECT
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE GULF SUN EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA EXTENDING
JUST W OF JAMAICA ALONG 17N80W 11N82W TO INLAND OVER N COSTA RICA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS N OF
30N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
VENEZUELA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BEGIN DISSIPATING SUN NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE E GULF EXTENDING INTO THE N AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N57W FROM A LARGE 976 MB OCCLUDED
LOW WELL N OF THE REGION CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N64W ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA. GALE FORCE
WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITHIN 180 NM
W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N20W EXTENDING SW TO 26N27W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 20N38W TO
15N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 11W AND FRONT. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FRONT ALSO BISECTS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 23N48W AND A SECOND 1016 MB
HIGH SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 17N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net