[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N30W 3N30W
TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 24W-33W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W CUBA
TO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 27N80W 23N82W 20N86W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 83W MOVING
E. THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS W OF THE FRONT AND HAS
15-20 KT NW SURFACE WINDS. THE TEXAS COAST AND W GULF W OF 95W
HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W PRODUCING 90-130 KT
SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF
EXCEPT OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED 15-20 KT NW SURFACE FLOW WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT REACHES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS MOVING E WITH MOSTLY RAIN.
ELSEWHERE... LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO N OF 16N E OF 68W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 14N BETWEEN 76W-84W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG
70W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS
WITH CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO S FLORIDA AT
27N80W. BANDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N32W TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 26N40W 21N50W 20N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E N OF 10N E OF 445W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR... THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND TO 32N62W WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E TO 32N23W WITH SHOWERS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE E OF
BOTH FRONTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA






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