[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2230 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM N LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W ALONG 5N20W
3N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2S50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN
19W-22W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 26W-51W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
ALSO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SEVERE WEATHER IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
1000 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE E OF TALLAHASSEE CONTINUING S ALONG 27N85W 23N86W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM E OF
THE AXIS. A STRONG LINE OF STORMS IS ANALYZED ALONG A SQUALL
LINE FROM NEAR DAYTONA FLORIDA TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING SW TO
NEAR 24N84W. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AS WELL AS TORNADO
WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG THIS LINE. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 97W. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ARE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
FLORIDA BRINGING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 72W. THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE BASIN IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GULF.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF REACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY...EXTEND OFF
THE NRN COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE SW N ATLC AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GULF. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY TO THE E SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
72W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM A DEEPENED 948 MB LOW NEAR 45N44W ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N36W CONTINUING ALONG 25N43W 20N57W
BECOMING A DYING COLD FRONT TO 20N67W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS...AS WELL AS N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT TO 31W. THE SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 46N45W WITH AXIS CONTINUING
SWD. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SW TO NEAR 6N44W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH S OF PORTUGAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net