[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N12W 5N24W 3N37W 3N46W 1N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 1W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 27W-47W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 14W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING
EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE
GULF JUST S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND A 1024 MB HIGH JUST E OF
NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. SW FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
GULF. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO BANK LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W TO JUST INLAND OVER
MEXICO N OF VERACRUZ AND TEXAS TO THE LOUISIANA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE ALONG THE N GULF COAST W OF
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF COAST ARE HOVERING
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE GULF WITHIN 90
NM OF 87W S OF 27N TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF LATE FRI/EARLY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC COVERS THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
17N63W TO NEAR 15N69W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N71W TO
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF A LINE FROM THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER ALONG 14N80W TO THE PANAMA/COSTA
RICA BORDER. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER W TO SW FLOW ALOFT IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG N TO
NE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERATING AN AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
30 NM OF 14N FROM 78W TO 81W. THIS CONTINUES TO LEAVE THE SE
CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 45W-75W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W
ALONG 24N52W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR N OF 27N W OF 78W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 6N53W TO
BEYOND 32N35W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W ALONG 23N54W TO BEYOND
32N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N34W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE E ATLC N OF 8N E OF 30W TO INLAND
OVER THE W PORTION OF AFRICA SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W TO N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 29N17W AND A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E FROM 32N12W ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N19W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS E OF THE FRONT
COVERING AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE ALGERIA/
LIBYA BORDER E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net