[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 3N23W 2N37W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
15W-23W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 25W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT
EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE
GULF JUST S OF MOBILE BAY ALABAMA AND A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGH
OVER NE ALABAMA AND NEAR NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF. RETURN FLOW
CONTINUES TO BANK LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE NW GULF WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO INLAND OVER
E TEXAS W OF GALVESTON. TEMPERATURES AVE MODERATED OVER TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA TONIGHT WHILE THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF COAST ARE HOVERING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER A SMALLER
PORTION OF THE GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N87W TO OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC COVERS THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO NEAR
15N70W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N75W TO ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR THE
HAITI DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER ALONG 15N78W TO THE PANAMA/COSTA
RICA BORDER. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER SW TO W FLOW ALOFT IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG N TO
NE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERATING AN AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
15N75W TO 14N80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE SE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 47W TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W ALONG 23N55W ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD N OF PALM
BEACH FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 12N56W TO BEYOND 32N37W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
75/90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N65W ALONG 24N54W TO BEYOND 32N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 29N34W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN THE E ATLC N OF 10N E OF 30W TO JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N14W EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 24M21W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS E OF THE FRONT COVERING
AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER ALGERIA NEAR 31N5W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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