[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W
WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 3N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 12W-17W...
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-35W... AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 38W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA AND
NOW EXTENDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA S OF 24N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER FLORIDA... AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COAST
OF TEXAS. 25-30 KT NW WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WHILE
15-25 KT WINDS OVER THE W GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30'S AND
40'S OVER THE N GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT...THE E GULF AND FLORIDA TO EXPERIENCE
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVER N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TOMORROW MORNING. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO HONDURAS
ALONG 23N80W 16N85W 14N88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA NW OF THE FRONT. 20-25
KT NW WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 13N80W TO 7N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 78W-81W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 66W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E
CUBA TO N NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N75W TO W CUBA NEAR
23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NW OF THE FRONT.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF 70W N OF 26N. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N53W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N29W TO 23N40W AND DISSIPATES TO 20N49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N-32N
BETWEEN 27W-31W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N18W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. ZONAL FLOW IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. A UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 6N47W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC FROM 20N15W TO 7N30W. EXPECT...THE
W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N64W TO E CUBA IN 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS...A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND
GALE FORCE WINDS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE
E WITH CONVECTION N OF 27N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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