[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 85 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W AND 40W.
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING CONVECTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF...IS NOW OVER THE WEST ATLC.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE THE FLORIDA STRAITS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE N OF 27N
W TO 91W. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. MEANWHILE...A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO EXTEND OVER N FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND S FLORIDA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE CONUS EASTERN SEABOARD
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW ALOFT THAT COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN...BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA TO MUCH OF THE EAST...S CENTRAL...AND SW BASIN. THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N E OF 82W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA ALONG 33N77W 26N78W 23N81W.
THIS LOW IS QUICKLY DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE MOVING ALONG THE
EASTERN US SEABOARD. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF 75W.
THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N61W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N30W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N40W TO 21N48W
WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 18N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N.
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 28N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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