[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 3N26W 4N40W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 11W-18W AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 27W-35W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 18W-26W AND BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 25/2100 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 29N86W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 25N88W
20N95W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR MINATITLAN. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IS RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST TO 29N84W ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO
BEYOND 32N78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 28N E OF 86W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS COVER THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS COAST S OF GALVESTON AND THE MEXICO COAST N
OF LAGUNA MORALES. WINDS ARE 20-30 KT ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE U.S. SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FEATURES ABOVE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
GULF SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. MEANWHILE...A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO EXTEND OVER N
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND S FLORIDA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
17N70W AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW
TO W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS UPPER
FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N E OF 83W TO ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO 57W. THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING NW OF A LINE FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA NEAR LA BARRA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1019
MB HIGH NEAR 28N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N36W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N43W TO 22N51W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO JUST NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N57W ENE ALONG 19N37W TO
BEYOND 32N22W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN1 20 NM OF LINE FROM 23N41W TO BEYOND 32N30W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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