[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W
WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 4N40W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 12W-15W...
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 23W-31W... AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 41W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 25N91W 22N96W 18N96W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS
ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 86W-90W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO NW OF THE FRONT. 25-30 KT NW WINDS ARE ALSO NW
OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40'S OVER E TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. 10 KT SE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS E OF THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 94W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO COZUMEL MEXICO IN 24 HOURS
WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER N FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
19N60W 18N70W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ALONG THE FRONT.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
62W-69W...FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 72W-75W...AND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
77W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 16N WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW WINDS DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N76W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N37W TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 23N50W 19N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 32W-40W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS W
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N21W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W. A UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N48W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND 32N24W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC FROM 20N17W TO 4N30W. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT
TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC IN 24 HOURS FROM 32N77W TO S FLORIDA
WITH SHOWERS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION N OF 27N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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