[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 7N24W 6N30W 7N46W 5N53W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
18W-28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING
FROM 12N47W TO 2N44W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
30N83W 27N90W 26N95W 20N96W. SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE OVER THE E
GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA E OF 86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 15 KT N WINDS ARE N
OF THE FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S N OF THE FRONT ALONG THE N
GULF COAST STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 97W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SRN BAY
OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO S OF JAMAICA ALONG 22N80W 14N78W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
74W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
70W-81W. FURTHER E... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS... AND PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
RETROGRADE E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1014 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO N FLORIDA AT 30N83W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS
FURTHER E NEAR 27N67W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 28N36W 20N47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-32N
BETWEEN 30W-37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC E OF 45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO
BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N73W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S
TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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