[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N24W 6N30W 7N45W 5N53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM
13N47W TO 4N44W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO
MEXICO ALONG 30N84W 28N90W 27N95W 23N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 26N E
OF 90W. 15 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE
S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S N OF THE
FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 97W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO S OF JAMAICA ALONG 22N80W 15N77W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
75W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
74W-81W. FURTHER E... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
60W-74W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. EXPECT THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N66W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 25N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 32W-37W. A
WEAK 1013 MB HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 18N32W
ALSO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A
SURFACE LOW TO BE OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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