[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 08N27W 01N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN
09W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM NORTH OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW RESIDES ALOFT OVER THE
GULF...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 25N90W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
U.S. PLAINS AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WHICH IS FORECAST
TO INTRODUCE THE NEXT RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW
GULF BY LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER WESTERN CUBA
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
THIS DRY AIR ALOFT IS FURTHER SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD ALONG 85W TO
COSTA RICA. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR LINE AXIS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO 14N77W INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 10N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED ALOFT BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NW AND DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 09N59W. OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EASTERLY TRADES TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS A WESTERN ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTS TO THE NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 67W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N73W TO OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 32N54W TO 26N66W THEN INTO A 1011
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW
ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MAINLY FOCUSED EAST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND LOW OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 22N70W TO 32N59W. NW OF THE LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO OFFSHORE OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR 31N81W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
COAST FROM 28N-33N W OF 78W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO BEYOND 32N50W THAT SUPPORTS A
SURFACE RIDGE BETWEEN 30W-50W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. AN
OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN E OF THE AZORES WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N24W...AND THE 1000 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 39N21W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE REMAINING N OF 29N
BETWEEN 16W-27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net