[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SRN GUINEA NEAR 9N13W ALONG 8N25W
5N36W EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 8W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE FAR ERN
CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEAVING
MAINLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT
SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF WITH SOME MODERATE MOISTURE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST. PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
IN THE SE GULF JUST N OF WRN CUBA. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS
AROUND THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 15-20 KT
OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE.
EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF MAINTAINING
FAIR CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ALONG 21N81W TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR 15N83W 13N87W. PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE
OF THE TROUGH UNTIL REACHING AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT
SPREADS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS ERN CUBA/HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER NE
SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO NEAR 14N77W WHERE THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE TO A 1011 MB LOW OVER PANAMA
NEAR 8N78W. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 73W-80W S OF 17W...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 67W-76W N OF 17W.
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE ELY
TRADEWIND FLOW S OF 13N E OF 67W. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N76W 30N79W
27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
75W-81W. FARTHER E...THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOTED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NE TO NEAR 32N61W CARRYING
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N BETWEEN
60W-70W. SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONTRIBUTED TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N54W TO 26N66W AND CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO
NRN HAITI NEAR 20N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 46N41W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE RIDGE BETWEEN 30W-50W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. AN
OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N25W...AND THE 1000 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 38N20W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 31N21W TO 24N25W
DEPICTING A WIND SHIFT AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS.  THERE IS LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A FEW
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 18W-27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net