[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N11W 05N20W 07N40W 05N51W. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 07N19W TO 04N26W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE GUYANA AND
VENEZUELA COASTLINES FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 55W-64W. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 04N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF ALONG
27N98W TO 22N97W TO 18N95W. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. ELSEWHERE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF SHOWS SIGNS OF FAIR WEATHER AS INDICATED
BY IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS IS GENERATING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
NW BASIN OF THE GULF IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND WITHIN 80 NM OF THE
HONDURAS COASTLINE WITH POSSIBLY GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THIS AREA...INCLUDING INTERIOR NORTHERN HONDURAS. A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN CENTERED OVER
THE COASTLINE BETWEEN THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER NEAR 10N77W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 17N69W TO 12N74W. SCATTERED WEAK
TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THIS
THROUGH AND WITHIN 80 NM OF THE LINE FROM 12N74W TO 15N70W.
BESIDES THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH...THE STATIONARY LOW BETWEEN THE
COASTLINES OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...E OF 67W...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER REMAINS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N58W...
EXTENDING SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 21N72W. THERE
IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE RIDGING PREDOMINATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CAPTURED BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS
SUPPORTING NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS BETWEEN 23W-40W N OF
20N AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/FG



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