[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071709
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N11W 05N20W 08N39W 05N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
06N19W TO 07N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 04N58W TO
09N59W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-11N
BETWEEN 55W-62W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 04N49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 07/1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FROM NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W TO 22N97W TO 19N94W.
WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 22N. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE HIGH SOUTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE MOST OF THE GULF E OF 95W WITH FAIR CONDITIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING
OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND
IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF
COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE
SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 81W-88W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA...INCLUDING INTERIOR
NORTHERN HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
04N49W WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W-NW TO 13N78W.
LOCATED BENEATH THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
11N71W TO 16N70W. ALSO...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
PANAMA NEAR 09N78W. WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 09N78W TO 14N73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W
EXTENDING SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W THEN
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N76W. WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WANE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 50W AND SUPPORTS A 1023
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N46W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-55W. OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY N OF 17N E OF 30W THAT SUPPORTS STRONG W TO NW WINDS TO
25 KT AS CAPTURED BY A 07/1116 UTC ASCAT PASS N OF 28N BETWEEN
20W-35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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