[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU/SENEGAL TO 10N20W 9N30W 9N44W...
INTO NORTHWESTERN GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W
AND 18W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 42W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
42W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALREADY HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA.
THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO IS LAGGING
BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE. THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SMALL
PART OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WATER
VAPOR LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ENTERS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND A TINY BIT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 8N80W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PANAMA IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ON TOP OF
PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ON TOP OF EASTERN CUBA AND IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND MOVING FROM THE PART OF CUBA THAT IS TO THE WEST
OF 80W TOWARD HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N70W...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO CUBA ALONG 80W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY IN THE CUBA COASTAL WATERS JUST TO THE WEST OF
80W...AND IT CONTINUES CURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF HONDURAS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT FOR
THIS FRONT REMAINS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W 29N64W 27N68W...AND THEN
WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N68W 25N74W 22N78W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 14N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N41W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N43W AND 14N49W. A STATIONARY
FRONT GOES FROM 31N29W TO 20N35W TO 12N46W. A COLD FRONT GOES
FROM 31N39W TO 26N40W 22N47W AND 23N53W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N33W 26N29W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 26W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W
WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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