[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 10N45W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 31W-33W...
AND FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 34W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 31W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
NORTHERN GUYANA ANS E VENEZUELA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ON THE LOUISIANA
COAST NEAR 29N90W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W-83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE E GULF
WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50'S OVER N FLORIDA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXETNDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 23N79W TO W HONDURAS ALONG 20N84W 14N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WITHIN 30 NM NW OF FRONT.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NW OF FRONT TO INCLUDE THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER W PANAMA NEAR 9N81W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
73W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER TRINIDAD AND NE
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 60W-63W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
60W-65W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA AND E
CUBA E OF 78W. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S 14N
BETWEEN 70W-85W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS
WITH SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA
ALONG 27N70W 23N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF
FRONT TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE NW OF FRONT. A
WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N67W. A 989 MB
GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N44W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 32N40W 27N41W 24N45W 23N54W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 32W-39W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG
32N29W 28N30W 20N35W 11N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 30W-34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT N OF 16N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
60W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W WITH AXIS ALONG 20W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E FROM 32N63W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC FRONTS TO MOVE E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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