[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTCA82 TJSJ 300135
HLSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
935 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL HEADING FOR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUE FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...NORTHEAST...
SOUTHEAST...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL INTERIOR...
PONCE AND VICINITY...NORTHWEST...WESTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND
VICINITY...SOUTHWEST...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS AND ST CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7N...LONGITUDE 60.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 310 MILES EAST
OF SAINT THOMAS VI...OR ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF SAINT CROIX VI.
THE STORM WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES NEAR
14 MPH AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 85 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A TRACK THAT WILL TAKE HIM ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK
COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA THAT COULD TRIGGER
FLASH FLOODING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING. FOR INTERESTS AT
PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. REGARDING ANY
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
AND WELL SECURED. FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR
PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING ANY
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT
OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED
RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 1230 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

PRZ002-012-013-VIZ001-002-300445-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHEAST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
ST CROIX-
935 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 20
PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME IS UP TO 71 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL
STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR. OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING OF DRY
GUTS...SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS.

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY NOON
MONDAY. ANY DEVIATION TO THE TRACK COULD BRING THESE WINDS FURTHER
WEST INTO VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TOTAL WATER RISES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR THE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES THAT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE SURF ZONE AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS. WAVE ACTION SURGING UPON
THE COASTLINE AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS MAY POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY AND PRODUCE MINOR BEACH EROSION.

HERE ARE THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES AT:

MAGENS BAY...1:45 PM AST MONDAY AT 1.3 FEET
CHRISTIANSTED...2:18 PM AST MONDAY AT 0.7 FEET

$$

PRZ001-003>011-300445-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-
935 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 8 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 45 PERCENT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO

...INLAND FLOODING...

OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM HURRICANE EARL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TOTAL WATER RISES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR THE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES THAT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE SURF ZONE AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS. WAVE ACTION SURGING UPON
THE COASTLINE AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS MAY POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY AND PRODUCE MINOR BEACH EROSION.

TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AT:
SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1:00 PM AST MONDAY AT 1.6 FEET AND 11:59 PM AST
MONDAY NIGHT AT 1.1 FEET.

...WINDS...
WHILE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW.

$$

AMZ712-715-722-725-732-735-300445-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
935 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 39 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 88 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAT 34 KNOTS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND NOON TOMORROW. WATERS
NORTH OF ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE STRONGER
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 FEET ARE
EXPECTED.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

$$

AMZ710-300445-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
935 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 61 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 96 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HOWEVER...AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...
STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT.
SEAS WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
MAXIMUM SEAS RANGING FROM 15 FEET ALONG LONGITUDE 67 WEST TO UP TO
25 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF EARL.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

$$

AMZ741-742-745-300445-
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
935 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 26 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL
A DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICATION DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
TRACK OF THE STORM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. WATCHES
MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

$$
ROSA





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