[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 38.0N 54.5W AT 29/2100
UTC...OR ABOUT 525 NM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NNE AT
25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. DANIELLE IS
EMBEDDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH AXIS FROM SE OF NOVA SCOTIA CANADA
NEAR 44N61W TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 30N70W. THIS TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY TRACK DANIELLE NE THEN ENE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 34N-45N
BETWEEN 47W-64W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 60.3W AT 30/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 85 NM E OF BARBUDA AND ABOUT 160 NM E OF ST. MARTIN MOVING
WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. EARL
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WNW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
NEAR 24N58W. AS EARL MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 24N58W TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W...A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EASTERN AND 180 NM
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 56W-65W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 08N-20N ALONG 38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
1006 MB LOW LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N38W AND REMAINS
THE FOCUS OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT ENCOMPASSES THE
AREA BOUNDED FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 33W-45W. AN EARLIER MORNING
ASCAT PASS DEPICTED NE WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE LOW FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ALTHOUGH
DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 06N-15N ALONG 18W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
EARLY MORNING DATA FROM THE DAKAR SENEGAL UPPER AIR TIME SECTION
ANALYSIS INDICATES A DISTINCT LOWER-LEVEL...800-850 MB...
CIRCULATION THAT HAS EMERGED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 15W-20W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N17W 08N21W 09N35W 08N42W
12N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 07W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N
BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 24N102W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N82W THEN INTO THE
FAR W ATLC. NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NE GULF...A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SW
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THAT IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-92W...INCLUDING
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. FARTHER
SE...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DUE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE GULF FROM
23N-29N E OF 84W. THIS ACTIVITY STRETCHES SW OVER WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND E-SE WINDS TO 15 KT WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF
THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N80W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W
IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THIS AREA
EXTENDS W OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO CENTRAL
PANAMA NEAR 10N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 75W-84W...INCLUDING STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ALSO EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA ALONG 18N TO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA
PROVIDING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS SE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING KEEPING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EARL ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND NE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 65W. CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS...AS WELL
AS HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN 65W AND THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST. WHILE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTHWARD
TO 32N70W...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL FROM 24N-27N W
OF 72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING
MOSTLY WITHIN THIS AREA...EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
26N TO 73W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS NOTED AT THE SURFACE AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF
HURRICANE DANIELLE...LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA...FROM 32N52W TO 27N58W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE LARGELY
REFLECTS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC. THE OTHER WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS HURRICANE EARL TRACKING W-NW SKIRTING THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A 1020 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N41W AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF 48W. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC IS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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