[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS EXTENDING FROM 24N33W TO 11N33W MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N41W TO
10N40W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS...WHILE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE WRN SIDE SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM WRN CUBA
NEAR 24N83W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N82W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM
W...240 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 22N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM GUINEA NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N23W 11N33W
9N48W 12N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 16W AND 29W ENHANCED BY A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
INLAND AFRICA NEAR 20N7W TO 13N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 13W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NRN GULF
N OF 27N W OF 82W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NRN GULF NEAR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PARALLELS THE MEXICAN COAST FROM NEAR 22N97W TO 19N94W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLANTIC. ALOFT MAINLY NE FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WRN TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE SRN GULF WITH THE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO CONTINUE BUILDING WWD ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM WRN CUBA TO PANAMA IS IMPACTING
MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE AREA W OF 79W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS FURTHER
SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
PORTION OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING ALONG 11N TO NRN COLOMBIA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH AN AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N61W. EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
27N69W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 33N67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG 62W
FROM 17N-27N ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N61W. A
SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 24N55W TO
10N56W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE FRONT ALONG 30N53W TO 26N57W
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 20N61W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
20N7W TO 13N27W ENHANCING CONVECTION TO THE S NEAR THE AXIS OF
THE ITCZ. TO THE NE...SURFACE RIDING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A
PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS HIGH
NEAR 33N34W AND 36N19W MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS COVERING THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N34W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N16W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON/HOLLEY




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