[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANT 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS NEAR 30N86W...ABOUT
60 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...AND IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE FORECAST MODELS MOVE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER GENERALLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N20W TO 12N29W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8N59W TO DOMINICA TO 20N62W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W...AND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W
AND 61W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N82W BEYOND
9N79W IN PANAMA MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KT. THE STRONG PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY
IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 14N98W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 59W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN FRENCH GUIANA AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM BRAZIL NEAR 50W TO GUYANA MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ALONG 24N85W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND THE
WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC MOST PROBABLY ARE RELATED
TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 14N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS
IN MEXICO ALONG 20N104W 25N104W TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. IT IS
NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO THIS TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N71W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...IN BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N71W TO 13N75W TOWARD THE PANAMA
COAST NEAR 9N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.
THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE
AREA FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 76W AND 81W MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA TO 22N. THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS AROUND THE
20N62W 8N59W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH 33N55W TO 31N61W 26N70W
AND WEAKENING AS IT POINTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N70W TO 27N73W AND
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD 32N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N57W 28N62W 21N79W...AND FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...THAT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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