[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANT 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE IS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM
29N TO 32N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W ABOUT FIVE HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME...FROM TEMPERATURES
OF -70C AND -80C NOW -50C AND -60C. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. THE FORECAST MODELS
MOVE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE SOUTH FIRST...TURNING
GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD...POSSIBLY ENTERING GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE RE-DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO COAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
ALONG 20N61W 14N60W 8N58W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N82W BEYOND
9N79W IN PANAMA MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. THE NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE AREA FROM COLOMBIA
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND BROAD
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THE STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MOST PROBABLY
IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 14N98W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N29W TO 7N37W 11N50W AND 11N56W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W
AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND
58W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN FRENCH GUIANA AND
COASTAL WATERS OF SURINAME MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ALONG 24N85W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND THE
WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC MOST PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 14N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH IS IN MEXICO ALONG 20N103W 25N103W TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 98W
AND 102W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N71W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...IN BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N71W TO 13N75W TOWARD THE PANAMA
COAST NEAR 9N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.
THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE
AREA FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA TO 22N. THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS AROUND THE
20N61W 14N60W 8N58W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH 32N61W TO 26N69W AND
WEAKENING AS IT POINTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N70W TO 27N73W AND CURVING
NORTHWESTWARD 32N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 25N65W 22N76W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW...THAT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...COVERS THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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