[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N41W TO 9N33W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE EXHIBITS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND THUS NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 22N59W 17N63W TO 11N63W
MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE
MAINLY N OF 15N AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N E OF 65W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS CUBA NEAR 20N76W ACROSS
PANAMA NEAR 9N81W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WAVE IS VERTICALLY STACKED BENEATH A BROAD UPPER HIGH
WHICH IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY THAT COVERS THE AREA. SEE
CARIBBEAN SEA BELOW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N11W 6N18W 7N30W 4N48W 5N58W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS SENEGAL AFRICA INTO THE E ATLC
NEAR 12N16W TO 11N19W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA BETWEEN 11N-15N. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW...REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE...IS INLAND ALONG
THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER NEAR 32N AND CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE STATES E OF
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N GULF WITHIN 75 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND LOUISIANA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CONUS AND
THE N GULF N OF 28N ANCHORED OVER S ALABAMA. AN UPPER LOW COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA
ARE MOVING OVER THE SE GULF MAINLY S OF 24N BETWEEN 82W-86W IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25N83W GIVING THE GULF SW SURFACE FLOW AND COUPLED
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD GENERATE CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BUT WILL MOSTLY BE
RATHER TRANQUIL THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED ALONG THE E COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE SE COVERING THE AREA S OF 18N
BETWEEN 74W-85W ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N78W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER
THE AREA S OF 19N BETWEEN 76W-86W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF
HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-74W.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA ARE MOVING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS SE INTO THE W ATLC
ALONG 32N80W TO 24N67W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS JUST TO THE N
OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE THROUGH 32N64W 29N70W THEN NW TO 31N77W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N55W
SW ALONG 25N59W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR THE MONA
PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
29N49W TO 24N54W AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL OF THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES THROUGH
32N38W TO 20N56W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GOES-R IMAGERY
INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE E ATLC
FROM 14N-33N E OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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