[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N40W TO 9N32W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. THE WAVE APPEARS BETTER DEFINED IN THE MID-LEVELS
INDICATED BY 700 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS FROM GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST E OF
THE WAVE AXIS...NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 23N59W
TO 11N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO
LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NW OF THE
WAVE PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-24N BETWEEN 56W-61W. ISOLATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N71W TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING UP ACROSS
JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-85W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER
ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE E
PACIFIC ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W ALONG 6N22W
8N31W 4N44W 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN 81W-93W...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF 93W TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE
WHICH CONTINUE TO FORM A BROAD CIRCULATION INLAND OVER SRN
MISSISSIPPI. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS
ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED
BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH OFF THE SW
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N83W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF FURTHER SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL GULF CENTERED E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE DRIFT FARTHER INLAND WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED E OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS WRN CUBA FROM 24N81W TO 21N82W.  POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITH DRY AIR MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE COVERS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO N OF PANAMA.
A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE ESPECIALLY NOTED OVER JAMAICA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-85W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED
BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS
CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 11N. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS NE OF THE ISLANDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-63W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS
MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOVES W-NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
SUPPORTING BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF
ACROSS FLORIDA TO N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH E OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT
NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INCREASING CONVECTION FROM 18N-24N
BETWEEN 56W-61W NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 50W-54W. FARTHER
E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED A 1027
MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 38N28W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA E OF
37W S OF 35N PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS BETWEEN 38W-53WW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF
THE RIDGE N OF 20N WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE
FAR E ATLC CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE S CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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