[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N19W TO 19N26W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
GLOBAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND MID-LEVEL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A
BROAD 600-700 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N19W WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH ALIGNED TO THE NW
ALONG THE AXIS OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 20N54W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 53W-60W WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
53W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 54W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N68W TO 16N72W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SOUTH OF A
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE...THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 63W-70W...
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
MONA PASSAGE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 08N19W 09N38W 07N49W 11N56W RESUMING
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W AND WESTWARD ALONG 09N INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 11W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
26N FOCUSED NEAR A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N90W. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING DEPICTS
A CYCLONIC SWIRL OF CONVECTION NEARING SE LOUISIANA AND THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING MOSTLY E OF 90W. FARTHER
WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N97W AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO
NEAR 19N101W. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
26N W OF 93W. ELSEWHERE...OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-97W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
TO EASTERN JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A
WESTWARD PROPAGATING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70W N OF 16N IS
PROVIDING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-80W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...IMPACTING MANY OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED SW OF A LINE FROM 15N83W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
12N73W. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N/10N AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION S
OF 12N INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...WITH THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 63W DUE
TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS
CENTERED NEAR 33N84W. THIS IS SUPPORTING A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N67W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOCATED SW OF THE HIGH...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 70W S OF 21N. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND SE BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE NEARBY ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO THESE FEATURES. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 20N66W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...
PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N53W TO 22N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 24N. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
26N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN
47W-51W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AS IT TRACKS TO THE N-NW
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH N-NE OF THE AZORES THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N27W
TO 22N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net