[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A
1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N49W WHICH IS ABOUT 800 NM E-NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W-NW NEAR 8-13 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NW AND N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NE OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N45W TO 27N49W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED AS A
1011 MB LOW OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N83W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW ALONG 27N89W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR
29N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 120/150 NM
OF LINE FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N88W ALONG 26N87W TO OVER SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. A SECOND SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NE FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ENHANCING SIMILAR ACTIVITY INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST S OF 29N. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW AT 4 TO 8
KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER W AFRICA FROM 17N13W TO 7N12W MOVING W 5-10
KT. WAVE REMAINS INLAND WITH ANY CONVECTION REMAINING INLAND
OVER W AFRICA. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AN A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N15W 9N23W 10N37W 8N45W 11N53W
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N61W TO 15N66W THEN RESUMES 10N75W
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-29W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING
AN AXIS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO W CUBA. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CENTERED JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS COVERING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND RE-ENFORCING THE FLOW ALOFT. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING ADVECTED S OVER THE NE GULF WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERRUNNING THE
SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MOISTURE ALOFT IS SPREADING OVER
THE W GULF GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 92W-97W KEEPING THE
GULF VERY ACTIVE THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO NEAR 15N74W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN
WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
NEAR 14N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
ALONG 15N70W TO JUST INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W.
DISSIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND OVER  HISPANIOLA..
JAMAICA...AND CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DOTTING THE AREA N OF 15N W
OF 72W. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF
16N E OF 67W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S
OF 13N W OF 72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W COVERING THE W
ATLC FROM 23N-32N W OF 72W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW JUST TO THE E NEAR 27N60W COVERING THE AREA N
OF 16N BETWEEN 54W-67W. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BAHAMAS S OF
26N W OF 74W TO OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA. THE EASTERN UPPER LOW IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR AND NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE FIRST FEATURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM FROM 22N44W
TO 32N49W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION THAT IS TO THE NE OF THE LOW
CENTER. A THIRD LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 33N28W AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE E ATLC INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC AND AGAIN NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 850 NM ENE OF
BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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