[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF COLIN...IS ALONG 27N59W TO A 1009
MB LOW NEAR 21N63W MOVING NW AT 17 TO 21 KT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 59W-64W. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS
LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS FROM 21N29W TO 7N32W MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS TO THE SW OF AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR THE MAURITANIA/WESTERN SAHARA. CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 78W S OF 19N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 10N18W 14N22W 10N40W 6N54W
ACROSS E VENEZUELA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N65W THEN 13N75W
INTO THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S COSTA RICA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM THE COAST
OF AFRICA TO 18W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-24W...
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-39W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-15N BETWEEN 28W-30W...COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM ALONG S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
32N-42N...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-19W...
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-24W...FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
40W-43W...WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W-47W...AND
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N87W COVERING THE SE GULF S OF
25N FROM 83W-91W. NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE N GULF AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
27N BETWEEN 86W-92W TO THE N GULF COAST. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR
27N89W. AS OF 05/0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 21N94W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-26N E OF 94W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N87W COVERING
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 81W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N TO OVER CUBA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST
S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N TO BETWEEN 75W-84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ITCZ ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COULD HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS
CONTINUES TO MOVE NW. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE AREA DISCUSSED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE CENTERED IN THE
W ATLC NEAR 31N65W AND 27N74W BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 23N BETWEEN 64W-79W. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LOWS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N61W TO
31N55W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N W OF 56W AND
N OF 26N BETWEEN 56W-78W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE
AZORES AND A 1023 MB HIGH 750 NM E OF BERMUDA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ARE UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND THUS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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