[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF COLIN...IS ALONG 27N65W TO A WEAK
1010 MB LOW NEAR 19N61W MOVING W-NW OR NW AT 17 TO 21 KT. AN
UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENHANCING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
19N-25N BETWEEN 58W-64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
IT LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT THE SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL...MEDIUM CHANCE...TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
STATUS LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 26W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT.
WAVE IS TO THE SW OF AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND
OVER W AFRICA AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 13N21W 10N33W 7N48W 11N59W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 20.5W-22.5W AND WITHIN 180/200 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 31W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 8N-11N...WITHIN
120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND WITHIN 200 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N MISSISSIPPI
CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W COVERING THE SE GULF
S OF 25N FROM 83W-90W. NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE N GULF COUPLED
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E OF 93W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA TO
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR
27N90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE S GULF FROM 21N-25N E OF 94W
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W COVERING THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 81W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N W OF 84W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST S OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 75W-86W AS WELL AS OVER HAITI AND THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS. THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE SE CARIBBEAN COULD
HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE NIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE AREA DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE CENTERED IN THE W ATLC
NEAR 29N66W AND 27N73W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 60-64W AND FROM 26N-28N
BETWEEN 73W-75W RESPECTFULLY. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 23N BETWEEN 65-78W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LOWS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 21N61W TO 31N55W
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY INT HE SPECIAL FEATURES. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N W OF 55W AND N OF
26N BETWEEN 55W-75W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES
AND A 1024 MB HIGH 850 NM ENE OF BERMUDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLC ARE UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
AND THUS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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