[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N8W...WESTWARD ALONG 1N20W CONTINUING ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO
50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF. STRONG
LIFTING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WEST OF 94W...EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY LATE
NIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED
WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS BEEN RE-ENFORCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD FRONT AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS.
REMNANT SHOWERS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ARE
STILL AFFECTING THE STATE SOUTH OF 29N. EXPECT INSTABILITY IN
THIS REGION WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A STABLE AIRMASS DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST
OF 80W. BEHIND THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIES AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS CROSSING WESTERN HAITI TO
NEAR 15N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN 110 NM
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WEST OF 68W. THIS TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE EASTERN BASIN EAST OF 70W THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK TO
MODERATE SHOWERS EAST OF 67W AFFECTING MOSTLY THE LESSER
ANTILLES SOUTH OF 14N. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N58W CONTINUING SOUTHWEST TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
30N61W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST
OF THIS FRONT LIES A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 28N42W
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 30W AND
60W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC FROM 30W TO 70W. OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH 32N16W CONTINUING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 25N18W 20N25W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 15N40W
CONTINUING AS A SHEAR LINE TO NEAR 15N52W. SCATTERED WEAK TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND STATIONARY FRONT. THE SHEAR LINE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA
OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS COVERING FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 40W
AND 52W. AS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE EASTWARD...COMPUTER MODELS HINT THE CONVECTION
GENERATED BY THE SHEAR LINE MAY LINGER NEAR THE MENTIONED AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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