[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0550 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N10W...WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO 50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 15W TO 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CROSSING THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF 23N AND WILL BE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST GULF OVER THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...LOOK FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NORTH OF 23N AND WEST OF 94W LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 95W
FROM 29N TO 24N CONTINUING SOUTHWARD AS A SHEAR LINE TO NEAR
21N. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 40 NM OF THE TROUGH
AND 12 NM OF THE SHEAR LINE. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 8 HOURS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
QUICKLY WEAKENING AND THE ACTIVITY RELATED THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. REMNANT SHOWERS FROM A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ARE STILL AFFECTING THE STATE
SOUTH OF 29N. EXPECT INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST
OF 80W. BEHIND THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIES AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS CROSSING EASTERN CUBA AND
CENTRAL JAMAICA TO NEAR 15N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180
NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN
130 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA EAST OF 67W. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE EASTERN BASIN EAST OF 70W THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK TO
MODERATE SHOWERS EAST OF 67W AFFECTING MOSTLY THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N60W CONTINUING SOUTHWEST TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N64W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST
OF THIS FRONT LIES A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 27N44W
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 30W AND
60W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC FROM 25W TO 70W. OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH 32N16W CONTINUING SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 22N24W 18N30W 15N40W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR LINE
TO NEAR 14N50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHEAR LINE IS GENERATING A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS COVERING FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. THIS AREA EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. AS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE EASTWARD...COMPUTER MODELS HINT THE CONVECTION
GENERATED BY THE SHEAR LINE MAY LINGER NEAR THE MENTIONED AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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