[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2350 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2.5N6W 4N12W 2N20W 1.5N29W
3.5N41W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. A LINE OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION CROSSES THE ITCZ FROM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG 2N8.5W TO 2S5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 14W
TO 22W. A CLUSTER OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE ITCZ
AND BEYOND...FROM 5S TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST BASIN...NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 92W...AND IT IS QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...PROVIDING RAPID LIFTING
OF MOIST AIR TO PRODUCE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. THIS FEATURE
IS ALSO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 25.5N96W
SOUTHWARD ALONG 24N96W TO 22N95W. THE SECOND TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 25N88W SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 23N92W TO 20N93W. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONVECTION COVERS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. A
SMALLER AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOUISIANA COAST TO 100 NM OFFSHORE. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS. LOOK FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT PREVENTING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
PASSING NEAR THE FAR NORTHWEST BASIN...PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN CUBA WEST OF 80W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING OVER
THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST BASIN EAST OF 70E. THUS...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE HISPANIOLA...AS WELL
AS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG
32N65W 27N71W 25N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROM ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE SUPPORTING THIS FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 38N45W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N28W TO 27N35W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 30W. EXPECT THE TWO FRONTS TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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