[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 3N1W
ALONG 4N6W 4N13W 1N29W 4N43W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N INTO AFRICA
BETWEEN 2W-8W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-7N
BETWEEN 25W-40W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 24W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 10/1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 25N93W TO 19N92W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH
ALONG WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SW GULF FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 88W-97W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN TEXAS INTO THE WRN GULF IS
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ALSO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS
ALSO SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HOUSTON
TEXAS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. THE ERN GULF IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UPON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT NOW IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF
ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN SWLY FLOW IS BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE WRN GULF AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD ALONG WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN COLOMBIA IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED IN THE ELY FLOW NEAR 17N81W...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND S OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT REACH THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM
14N-16N E OF 62W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W CONTINUING SW ALONG 29N73W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF
THE FRONT E OF 78W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT W
OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 70W
SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 40N48W SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 50W. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT PROTRUDES
INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N34W TO 31N44W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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