[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W AND INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 5N30W TO 1N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA
NEAR 30N83W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N87W TO 19N94W CONTINUING
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 18N95W
TO 20N100W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
N OF 23N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW GULF S OF
23N W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER E/CENTRAL MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING THE NE GULF TO 28N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NW GULF BRINGING CLEAR SKIES N OF 24N W
OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR EAST OF THE GULF
REGION BY LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING 10 TO 20 KT NE TO E WINDS SOUTH
OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING
THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. AN ABUNDANCE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL N
ATLC OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO 72W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING E OF 72W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AREAS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 45W-61W. ALOFT...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 80W. THIS
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BASIN THIS MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ENJOYING
FAIR WEATHER AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
35W-76W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR
31N60W GIVING A MAJORITY OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N.
ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE SE CONUS ATLC COAST AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NW OF A
LINE FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N77W. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL AXIS ALONG 32N26W TO 20N45W THAT SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE AZORES TO 32N28W THEN S-SW
ALONG 25N31W TO 18N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO
14N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 40W-60W
AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 4N28W NE TO BEYOND 32N07W ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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