[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N30W AND INLAND OVER NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 09/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE BIG
BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 24N90W
TO 19N95W CONTINUING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 19N99W TO 21N102W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN
120 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 25N.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 95W AND INLAND OVER E/CENTRAL MEXICO.
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING THE NE GULF
TO 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPORT A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NW GULF BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR
THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING 10 TO 20 KT NE TO E WINDS
SOUTH OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING
THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. AN ABUNDANCE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL N
ATLC OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO 70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING E OF 70W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALOFT...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 82W. THIS CONTINUES
TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
35W-78W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR
30N59W GIVING A MAJORITY OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N.
ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N78W. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
W ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AXIS
ALONG 32N27W TO 19N46W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N28W S-SW ALONG 25N32W TO 15N50W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH TO 13N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 20N WHILE S OF 20N SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 45W-62W
AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 3N29W NE TO BEYOND 32N07W ACROSS NW
AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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