[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE'S
WESTWARD PROGRESS IS BEING IMPEDED BY THIS TROUGH. THE WAVE HAS
NOT MOVED SINCE THE 28/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W...AND FROM
16N TO 17N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N52W 12N54W 7N55W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN
50W AND 55W ARE RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...ITCZ...

10N12W 8N19W 10N28W 11N32W 9N44W 10N53W INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
4N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SOME OF THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE
CARIBBEAN SEA 16N78W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS REACHED THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 27N83W 24N88W
20N90W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC
CENTER ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AREA
TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT COVERS THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 28N FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS MOVED TO 16N78W ABOUT 130 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE 16N78W CYCLONIC CENTER IS ABOUT 240 NM WIDE
AS IT PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND
BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW IS MUCH GREATER IN COVERAGE TO THE WEST OF
HISPANIOLA...FROM 11N TO CUBA BETWEEN 74W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AND COSTA RICA...PANAMA...COLOMBIA...AND VENEZUELA IS PUSHED
NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF 16N78W CYCLONIC CENTER AND
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 30N30W TO 29N50W TO 27N70W TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE GOES FROM 19N TO
30N BETWEEN 30W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
28N57W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N65W
TO 28N79W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N34W TO 26N38W
TO 22N47W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N40W TO 26N49W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N50W 18N40W 18N30W AND BEYOND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE
LINE FROM 24N25W TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 27N19W
BEYOND 32N14W.

$$
MT



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