[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
29N WITH LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS BETWEEN 25W-31W. STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS
INHIBITING MOST CONVECTION WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS...HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
AXIS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 19W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WITH A BULK OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM
REMAINING S OF 12N. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ AS
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 62W-69W MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N17W 10N27W 10N31W 10N51W
11N55W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 8W-15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 13W-17W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 38W-51W AND BETWEEN 55W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ENTERS THE NE GULF NEAR 30N85W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES WSW TO 29N90W. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THIS FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE AREA AND THE LINGERING FRONT IS
GENERATING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN 85W-90W. MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 24N84W. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
UP TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AS DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE NW GULF
WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP N OF 25N W OF 87W AND MOVE
INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
THIS EVENING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N74W. NWLY WINDS ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
REINFORCE CLEAR SKIES N OF 14N W OF 73W THIS EVENING. E-SE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 14N ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS BEING USHERED IN ACROSS THE BASIN ON MODERATE
ELY TRADEWINDS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 62W-69W. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N ACROSS PANAMA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 11N...INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N67W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 29N67W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
PROVIDING A MAJORITY OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH NELY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW RESULTING IN A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
AREA NEAR 32N31W ALONG 28N44W 29N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING N
OF 27N OVER THE EASTERN ATLC IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N12W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

$$
HUFFMAN



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