[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM 3N-13N MOVING W AT 20 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS.
THE WAVE IS UNDER THE W PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EAST PACIFIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 86W-90W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W TO 3N20W TO 2N30W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AT 36W TO NE BRAZIL AT 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN
2W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 29N87W 26N87W 23N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 85W-88W MOVING E. A
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS ALONG 30N93W 26N98W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 96W-99W MOVING E. NW 10 KT WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE
SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT SURFACE FLOW. SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE S
OF 25N W OF 86W DUE TO WILDFIRES ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS INLAND OVER TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF AND FLORIDA N OF 23N. SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER S TEXAS...THE N GULF...AND FLORIDA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 76W-79W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SEE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...HISPANIOLA... AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TRINIDAD.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW AND NE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT STRONGEST CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 65W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 27N44W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N34W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-55W.
IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
8N20W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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