[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W FROM 3N-13N MOVING W AT 17 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS.
THE WAVE IS UNDER THE W PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO
HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N
BETWEEN 83W-88W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W TO 3N20W TO 2N30W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AT 35W TO NE BRAZIL AT 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN
8W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N90W 26N90W
23N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
24N-30N BETWEEN 88W-92W MOVING E. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF NE MEXICO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 95W-99W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND S FLORIDA S OF
27N. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERLY 10-15
KT SURFACE FLOW. SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE S OF 25N W OF 86W
DUE TO  WILDFIRES ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF AND FLORIDA N OF 24N. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE N GULF AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE
ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO
RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO TRINIDAD. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE SW AND NE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT STRONGEST CONVECTION TO BE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 65W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 30N43W 24N46W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N34W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-55W.
IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
8N20W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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