[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 31W EXTENDING TO 1S40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 12W-20W...FROM EQ-2S
BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 25W-28W. CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NE
BRAZIL FROM EQ-6S BETWEEN 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 26N BETWEEN 90W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF
90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THIS AREA.
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT... A
SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM E TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE
TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 84W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E CUBA
FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TRINIDAD. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE W ATLANTIC...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 73W-76W...WHILE ISOLATED
SHOWERS PERSISTS N OF 20N BETWEEN 73W-80W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N60W. A STATIONARY 1018 MB LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N49W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG
28N48W 21N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N32W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N46W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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